Vol. 10 No. 2
Time series modeling and forecasting of pulses production in India
Author(s): Vishwajith K.P, B S Dhekale, P K Sahu, P Mishra and Md Noman
Abstract: Pulses are known as poor man’s meat as these are comparatively cheaper sources of protein in balancing human diet. In a populous developing country like India, production of pulses play pivotal role in nutritional security of the country. Production of pulses depends on many production factors like rainfall, fertilizer etc. and also on area under crops and its productivity. Analysis of production behaviour, modelling and forecasting of production taking all these factors in to consideration play vital role in human nutritional security. In this paper attempt has been made to analyse and forecast the production scenario of pulses in major pulses growing states of India. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methodology has been used to model and forecast the behaviour of pulses production with and without inclusion of the above factors of production. In most of the cases, inclusion of the factors of production in the model outperformed the simple ARIMA modelling. To take care of conditional variances, use of Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) models are found in literature; the method has also been used in this study. From the forecasted value it is clear that among the Indian states, Madhya Pradesh has to play a major role in augmenting pulses production in India with its estimated share of 3661 thousand tons out of all India production of 14360 thousand tons in 2015. Comparative analysis reveals that uniform superiority of neither the ARIMAmodel nor the GARCH could be established in modeling and forecasting the production behavior of pulses in India...
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