Author(s): S. BHAVYASHREE AND B. BHATTACHARYYA

Abstract: A study of monthly rainfall for active monsoon period from June to September was carried out for the period of 1980-2013 (34 years) for coastal zone of Karnataka i.e, Dakshina Kannada and Udapi districts. In semi-arid tropics the weather conditions have a tendency to cluster together to a certain extent which means that the occurrence of rainfall on a particular day depends on the weather conditions of the previous day Markov chain is one of the best tool for describing the meteorological persistence among the tools which are available. The studies of uncertainty about the nature of day’s rainfall are rarely available. Every probability distribution has some uncertainty associated with it. The concept of Information theory approach (entropy) is introduced here to provide a quantitative measure of this uncertainty, and to test the stochastic Markovian dependence. The redundancy of state of occurrences is ranging from 35 to 46 per cent. A test equivalent to the likelihood ratio test has shown better result against, the Markov dependence on the same observations. Using likelihood ratio test, Markovain dependence is best fitted during the study period.

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