Vol. 17 No. 3
Forecasting of area, productivity and prices of mango in Navsari district, Gujarat
Author(s): Y.A. GARDE, R.R. CHAVDA, V.S. THORAT AND R.R. PISAL
Abstract: Horticulture is playing an important role in food production and industrial economy. Forecasting of area, production and the idea about price trend are used to provide support in decision making and proper planning for sustainable growth of the developing country. The cultivated area and yield of mango has more effects on the price of mango but in other ways pre or post-harvest management also effects on it. The problems regarding the price fluctuations arise due to seasonality in arrival and perishable nature. Therefore, forecasting of area, productivity and prices of mango play important role. In the current investigation, simple exponential smoothing (SES) was implemented to develop the forecasting models for area and productivity of mango. Under the SES, the error measurements at different values of alpha (a) for forecasting of area and productivity were observed that the value 0.8 and 0.9 of alpha (a) showed minimum Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) error i.e. 2.56%, and 2.89%, respectively. The study also developed time series ARIMA models for forecasting the prices of the mango (Keshar and Alphanso) for Navsari markets of Gujarat. It was revealed that ARIMA (5 1 2) and ARIMA (3 1 1) were found good models for forecasting the prices of the Keshar and Alphanso mango respectively in Navsari district of Gujarat.
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