Vol. 18 No. 3
Development of zonal wheat yield forecast models through Principal Component Analysis
Author(s): CHETNA, M. DEVI, J. MOHAMMED, Y. S. RAGHAV AND P. MISHRA
Abstract:
For Hisar, Bhiwani, and Sirsa districts, as well as Fatehabad district, the western zone of Haryana has developed zonal wheat yield models based on weather data dating from 1980-81 to 2013-14. Multiple Linear Regression and Principal Component Analysis were employed to achieve this goal. The models’ validity was confirmed for the post-sample years 2014-15, 2015-16, 2016-17, 2017-18, and 2018-19. The use of Regression Analysis and Principal Component Analysis in the development of zonal yield models has been crucial. There appears to be an overall preference for using prediction equations with higher loading of weather variables during the period of model creation and model testing Zonal yield models improved district-level yield forecast significantly by showing good agreement with real-time wheat yields. The overall results show a preference for principal component analysis-based prediction equations when it comes to capturing deviations from real-time yields in terms of percent. The wheat harvest can be predicted by zonal weather models 4-5 weeks prior to harvest.
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