Vol. 15 No. 3
Prognostication of mulberry silk cocoon prices in Kaliachak (West Bengal) market
Author(s): MANJUNATHA G.R, HUNMILY E, K.K.R. PATIL, S. AFROZ, PARMESHWARNAIK J., D. PANDIT AND V. SIVAPRASAD
West Bengal is a traditional silk production centre and stands 3rd in Indian mulberry silk map.The cocoon marketing centres are situated in Malda(Kaliachak, Chanchal, Mothabari&Amrity), Murshidabad (Sagarpara, Panchgram&Berhampore) and Birbhum (Bhadrapur) region; however these markets are not as organised as cocoon markets in southern India.Kaliachak market is a major and very active through-out the year.Typically, marketing channels in the state include “seed rearers -registered seed producers (RSPs/DoS/CSB) - commercial rearers - middlemen -reelers/societies (cocoon markets)”.If silk cocoon fails to fetch remunerative price,commercial rearersusuallyreel the cocoons on their own and market the silk (end product). In the interest of commercial rearers in Malda region, current study aimed atdiscerningand forecastingmulberry silk cocoon prices in Kaliachakmarket. Data pertaining to cocoon pricesand arrivals across the seasons (2016-2019) were collected and analyzed.The cocoon bidding prices werefound highest in favourable seasons(Rs.316±50) as compared to cocoons produced in unfavourable seasons(Rs.189±30). The relationship between cocoon arrivals and cocoon prices were found to be positive and significant. The prominence of seasonality in cocoon prices was observed withnegativeCGR (-2.96%), which was confirmed with traditional time-series analysis. Mulberry cocoon priceup to Agrahayani 2019 season in Kaliachak market were projectedusing quadratic trendequation [highestR2 (0.87) & least RMSE (4.04)].
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