Vol. 17 No. 1
Paddy price forecasting in India using ARIMA mode
Abstract: The year 2020 being an extraordinary year of pandemic is likely to have far reaching effects on the prices of essential food commodities. The study was undertaken with an aim to forecast wholesale paddy prices for the next agricultural year i.e., 2020- 21 in five major states namely Punjab, UP, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Delhi. ARIMA model has been used to forecast the prices. Analysis of the seasonal price variations reflects that price variations have been more prominent in northern states than others. Results indicate that wholesale prices for the agricultural year 2020-21 would be in the range of Rs1810.23–Rs.2239.59 qt-1 for Punjab, Rs.1662.91-Rs.1674.98 qt-1 for Tamil Nadu, Rs.3010.00-Rs.3133.36 qt-1 for Delhi, Rs.1835.05-Rs.1902.22 qt-1 for West Bengal and Rs.1080.90-Rs.1495.35 qt-1 for Uttar Pradesh. ARIMA models were evaluated using RMSE and MAPE. Best fit ARIMA model for different markets obtained were ARIMA(4,0,12) ARIMA(0,1,6) ARIMA(0,1,12),ARIMA(0,1,3) and ARIMA(3,1,12) for Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Delhi, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh, respectively. Since crucial decisions with respect to production, marketing and consumption are dependent on certain price expectation, findings of the study might prove helpful in guiding the stakeholders involved in making timely decisions.
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