Author(s): B. SINGH, C.K. ARYA, SNEHDEEP AND M. K. SHARMA

Abstract: Sugarcane is the one of the most dominant industrial crops for sugar and bio-energy. It is extremely essential to be acquainted with the trend of variability in sugarcane production for proper planning and maintaining balanced demand and supply system. The present study explored the statistical analysis for trend and change point detection for sugarcane production of major sugarcane producing states of India. Several well-known non-parametric methods viz. Pettitt’s test, Standard normal homogeneity test and Buishand’s range test were applied. The objectives of these methods were to find out the mutation point in time series data related to sugarcane production during the period 1990-2019. Accordingly, Sen’s slope estimator was applied to determine the magnitude of the trend and their significances were evaluated by the Mann Kendall test for sugarcane production. It was seen that the most of the states observed significant change points in different time periods say Uttar Pradesh at 2009, Maharashtra at 2005, Karnataka at 2009, Tamil Nadu at 2013, Bihar at 2009, Andhra Pradesh at 2012, Gujrat at 1997 and Madhya Pradesh at 2004, except Haryana and Punjab. In addition, the change point (1997) was firstly detected in Gujarat state and Tamil Nadu (2013) was identified at the last. The majority of the states appeared the raising trends in sugarcane production. The significant rising trend of sugarcane production was observed in Uttar Pradesh and found maximum Sen’s slope estimator (5912.714/ year) in the second segmentation period (2010-2019). Currently, the production of sugarcane in Uttar Pradesh was extremely enhanced as compared to other states from 2009. Thus, the production of sugarcane has been increased significantly in Uttar Pradesh compared to preceding years and also Uttar Pradesh maintained top rank in production of sugarcane in the country.

DOI: 10.22271/09746315.2021.v17.i2.1467

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